Himachal Pradesh will go for Assembly Election on 4th Nov, 2012. The results of election will be declared on 20th Dec, 2012 with Gujarat Assembly Election result. In last Assembly elections, Himachal Pradesh has seen alternative governments of BJP and Congress. In 2003 Assembly Election, Congress won a landslide victory in Himachal Pradesh by winning 43 seats out of total 68 seats.
On the other hand, BJP just managed to win 16 seats. In this election, vote share of Congress was 41% and BJP was 35%. In this election, HVC also got 6% vote share and vote share of independents was 12.5%. With vote share of 41% Congress managed to win 43 seats in assembly. In 2007 Himachal Assembly Election, HVC merged with Congress however despite this merger vote share of Congress decreased to 39% which was 8% less than total Congress + HVC vote share of 47 combined.
On the reverse, vote share of BJP increased to 44% with increase of 9% vote share and resulted in 41 seats. Here vote share of independents also decreased by 4.5%. In 2007 assembly election, BSP showed great performance by getting 7.3% vote share, though it managed to win only one seat. In last five years, many things have changed in Himachal Pradesh and biggest worry for BJP in anti-incumbency factor which can decrease vote share of BJP.
However, main thing to see is that how much affect anti-incumbency factor will play in Himachal Pradesh Election. In Punjab Assembly Election, we just saw reverse of it where BJP-SAD retained their power in Punjab by reversing effect of anti-incumbency. Results of 2012 Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be affected by changes in vote shares of these parties. Any positive change will increase overall seats and any negative change will decrease overall seats.