Exit/Opinion Poll results for the Bihar Assembly Election 2015

As we are nearing the Bihar Assembly election 2015 so we are also getting updates of all exit polls, opinion polls and poll surveys done by various media channels. In Bihar the main election fight is between JDU-RJD-Congress allianace and BJP lead alliance of multi-parties. These political alliances clearly suggests that no political party was confident of winning these elections alone so they joined hands with like minded parties.

In Bihar Assembly, there are 243 assembly seats and to make the government any alliance or party needs to winn 122 seats. I have all the poll surveys related to Bihar and they are saying one thing that there will be a tough fight on the ground. Some poll surveys have given the edge to BJP alliance and some have given edge to JDU alliance. However, in a nutshell, all exit polls suggest that there will be a difference of only 2-3% votes in the winning and losing alliance.

Though, both alliances are confident of winning the Bihar Assembly election 2015. Bihar assembly elections will be held in five phases and the final results will be declared on 8th Nov, 2015.

When we go by the opinion polls of IndiaTV (C-voter) and Zee News, then it looks that BJP lead alliance looks to have a narrow edge over the JDU lead alliance winning 122-132 seats. 

However, ABP news (Nielson) opinion poll, JDU lead alliance to get 129 seats.  

We can see a clear contradiction in the opinion polls about the final results of Bihar; however, all indicating a tough fight.

Opinion Poll Results for Bihar Assembly Election 2015 (Combined)

BJP+   118-135
JDU+   115-129
Oth       10-18

Time Table/Schedule Bihar Assembly Election 2015

Below, you can find the complete time and detail of the upcoming assembly election in Bihar. These are the last major elections this year and they will decide the future CM of Bihar. The main fight in Bihar is between JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance and multiply party alliance headed by BJP.  There is a total of 243 assembly seats in Bihar Assembly and any party or alliance needs to win 122 seats to make the next government in Bihar. Out of the 243 assembly seats, 38 are reserved for the SC and 2 for the ST. There is a total of 66826658 eligible voters in Bihar and out of them 100% have photo identity cards. For the convenience of voters 62779 polling stations will be made across Bihar.

Bihar Assembly elections will take place in five phases and the final results will be declared on 8/11/15.

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Date of  16-09-15 21-09-15 01-10-15 07-10-15 08-10-15
Notification -
Last Date of Nomination 23-09-15 28-09-15 08-10-15 14-10-15 15-10-15
Date of Scrutiny 24-09-15 29-09-15 09-10-15 15-10-15 16-10-15
Last Date of Withdrawal 26-09-15 01-10-15 12-10-15 17-10-15 19-10-15
Date of Poll  12-10-15 16-10-15 28-10-15 01-11-15 05-11-15
Date of Counting 08-11-15 08-11-15 08-11-15 08-11-15 08-11-15

Who will win Bihar Assembly Election 2015?

Bihar, Assembly election, 2015, Nitesh Kumar,
By the end of this year, we will witness elections in one of the most important states of India i.e. Bihar. Bihar is a very crucial state of India because 40 Loksabha and 16 Rajya Sabha seats. At present Nitesh Kumar of JDU is Chief minister of Bihar with the support of Lalu Yadav's party RJD.

Bihar offers a big challenge to the Narendra Modi government at center because these elections will tell Narendra Modi's Karishma is still present or it has faded. These elections are also very crucial for the Nitesh Kumar and Lalu Yadav, who have come together to stop the BJP from winning Bihar Assembly election.

Bihar, Assembly election, Narendra Modi
There is a total of 243 assembly seats in Bihar and any political party or alliance will need to win 122 assembly seats to make next government in Bihar. In the 2010 Bihar Assembly election, BJP and JDU fought together and they clean swept the elections with a victory in 206 assembly seats. The BJP won 91 seats and JDU 115 seats while RJD was left with 22 seats only.

However, JDU splits away from the BJP in June, 2013 before the Loksabha Election when BJP decided to make Narendra Modi BJP's Priministarial candidate.  JDU continued its government with the support of Congress and independents.

Bihar, Assembly election, 2015, lalu YadavBihar saw many political changes with Jitan Ram Manjhi becoming 23rd Chief Minister of Bihar for a short span of a few months. Later Manjhi floated a new political party Hindustani Awam Morcha after his split with JDU. At this crucial stage RJD helped Nitesh Kumar to again become CM of Bihar.

Now both RJD and JDU have decided to fight these elections together and Congress will be part of this alliance. On the other hand, BJP, LJP and newly formed Hindustani Awam Morcha will fight together.

The main fight is between these two alliances and one of them will win the Bihar Assembly Election. Both these alliances have their strong and weak points; therefore, we will see an interesting fight in Bihar.

Politics in Bihar changes very fasts; therefore, we can see many new surprises till the election finishes and a new government is in power. Last year election predictions related to Bihar gave an edge to BJP alliance in polls; however, the situations are changing very fast at ground in Bihar; therefore it is very hard to exactly predict who will win these elections.

In recently held Bihar Legislative Council election BJP won 13 seats out of 24 whereas JDU-RJD won just 10 seats. In general, we can say that the fight for Bihar Assembly is going to be tough and it will test on the ground that who is a strong leader among the people of Bihar. 

AAP to make government in Delhi as per the Exit Polls

There is a good news for the AAP and a bad news for the BJP if we go by the exit polls. All exit polls have given a majority to the AAP in today held Delhi Assembly election 2015. BJP tried very hard to win these elections and it brought Kiran Bedi into BJP to tackle popularity of Arvind Kejrewal.

If predictions of exit polls become true on 10th Feb, 2015 then it will be first major defeat for the BJP. As the per exit poll, AAP to 41% votes in Delhi Assembly election, which are 12% more than Delhi Assembly election of 2013.

The BJP vote share is likely to remain 33% just one percent more than a last assembly election.

As per the exit polls, AAP can get 35 to 55 seats in Delhi and BJP can get 20-30 and Congress just 0-4.

In recent times, exit poll predictions have become quite accurate; therefore, this is clearly a worrying sign for BJP. It looks that BJP's strategies to defeat AAP have failed in Delhi.

The final results will available on 10th Feb, 2015 and then, we will come to know that who is the real winner of Delhi. So far exit polls have made Arvind Kejrewal again CM of Delhi. 

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