2016 Assembly Election - A big setback for Congress

The results for the Assembly election 2016 in the states of Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are not in the favor of Congress. As the trend is showing that Congress will lose hold of two big Indian states. First, it will lose Assam to BJP lead alliance and second, Left alliance will take over Kerala state. In other states too, the condition of Congress is not very good.

Now, Congress needs to think that's why they are getting defeats after defeats. The main issue with Congress is lack of new faces. Congress party is still concentrated around few faces only and these faces are also losing shine with time. If Congress wants to regain its position, then it is very important for it to introspect and allow space for new leaders.

Mamta Banerjee's Trinamool Congress Will make next government in West Bengal

Mamta Banerjee's Trinamool Congress Will make next government in West Bengal

Mamta Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) is all set to make second consecutive government in West Bengal through the landslide victory. As per the trends, TMC is going to win more than 200 seats in West Bengal, which is going to break its own record of 184 assembly seats in the 2011 assembly election.  This time TMC has fought this election alone, unlike the last year tie-up with Congress. 

While Congress and Left parties combined their hands for the first time to defeat TMC; however, it looks that people have rejected this alliance. Congress somewhat looks to be retaining its ground, whereas Left parties are likely to perform poorer than the last assembly elections. These results show that people of West Bengal have again shown their faith in the leadership of Mamta Banerjee. 

BJP also puts all effort to win the West Bengal Assembly Election 2016; however, combined BJP alliance is likely to win less than 10 seats. At present Mamta Banerjee is the clear winner and she is the only leader who single handedly got a big success. These results are as per the exit poll predictions. 

Exit Poll/Opinion Poll Results for Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry Assembly Election 2016

With the end of Assembly elections in the states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry, we have some of the exit and opinion polls are available. Though, exit polls and opinion polls are not always right, however, we may get some clue of the upcoming results Assembly election results on 19th May, 2016.

The results of Assembly election 2016 in the states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry will great effect on the political atmosphere in India. Through, these election results, we will come to know that whom people of these states are supporting.  These results are very important for major political parties like Congress, BJP, Communist Parties, AIDMK, DMK, TMC etc. Below, I will give details of combined exit poll results each state wise.

Exit Poll Results for West Bengal - 

We combine all available exit poll results for the West Bengal, then we get no surprise as all the exit polls are predicting a win for Mamata Banerjee Trinamool Congress. As per the estimates, TMC may get 150 to 230 seats in West Bengal Assembly Election. 

These results will be a setback for the Congress and Left alliance in West Bengal, which is expected to get 40 to 100 seats combined. These exit polls are also set back for BJP as it is expected get 0 to 5 seats. 

Exit Poll Results for Assam -

Exit poll results for the Assam may bring cheer on the face of BJP leaders as BJP is expected to either emerge single largest political party or get a full majority in the state. BJP is expected to get 55 to 81 in Assam. 

This news is not good for Congress as it is expected to get 33 to 50 seats. AIUDF is expected to get 5 to 22 seats and another 5 to 16. 

The Role of AIUDF and others may become important, if BJP failed to majority in Assam. 

Exit Poll Results for Tamil Nadu - 

In Tamil Nadu, DMK+Congress alliance is expected to gain victory with 122-140 seats and AIADMK may get 80 to 100 seats. 

Exit Poll Results for Kerala - 

As per the combined exit poll results LDF is likely to gain victory in Kerala by winning 80-100 seats and UDF only 40-50

Exit Poll Results for Puducherry - 

In Puducherry also DMK is likely to win 15-20 seats and AINRC 8-12. 

Who will West Bengal Assembly Election 2016? Exit/Opinion Polls/Survey

Yesterday, the election commission of India announced the dates of assembly elections in the state of West Bengal. These elections will be conducted in six phases to insure people vote freely. At present, Mamta Banerjee lead Trimool Congress (TMC) is in power from last five years. In 2011, she overthrow 34 years old rule of left parties from the West Bengal with a landslide victory of 227 seats. In the 2011 assembly election, TMC has an alliance with Congress; however, this time TMC has decided to go alone and already declared list of its candidates.

There is a total of 294 assembly seats in West Bengal; therefore, any political alliance or party needs to win 148 seats to make next government in the state. The main fight in West Bengal Assembly election 2016 is between TMC, Congress, Left Parties (Communist Parties) and the BJP. So far, there is no news of any political alliance in the state and it looks that all political parties are going alone in this election. In the last assembly election of 2011, TMC won 184 assembly seats and it 2014 Loksabha election, it won 34 Loksabha seats out of 42 with Vote share of 39.3 %.

At present Trimool Congress looks to be a strongest candidate among all political parties and some of opinion polls (including an Opinion poll of Aaj Tak), it is predicted that TMC will win these elections. The biggest rival of TMC is Communist parties which enjoyed a vote share of 23% in 2014 Loksabha election. BJP saw a major boost in its vote share in the 2014 Loksabha election and got 16.6% votes (+10.6%). BJP again looks for another miracle to win the West Bengal Assembly elections; however, it will not an easier job for BJP.

Congress is now restricted to a small region of West Bengal and it is slowly losing its ground in West Bengal after the exit of Mamta Banerjee from Congress in 1997. In the present circumstances, the chances of TMC are very high in West Bengal. However, it is still to be seen what will the effect of recent communal violence and JNU incidence on the West Bengal election. Communist Parties and Congress can increase their chances in West Bengal, if they go far an alliance; however, so far, Communist parties have denied any such alliance.

Only on 19th May, 2016 we will get to know about the mood of people in West Bengal, till then we can only speculate. In my opinion, TMC looks to have better chances; however, things can change with time.

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