JDU lead Alliance is heading for victory in Bihar Assembly Election 2015 (As per Trend)

If we go with the trends, then JDU+RJD+Congress alliance is going to make government in Bihar again. If these trends become results, then it will be a great shock for the BJP and Narendra Modi. BJP was very confident of winning these elections based on the popularity of Narendra Modi.

These trends also indicate that magic, alliance of JDU, RJD and Congress has worked and people of Bihar are somewhat unhappy with the policies of the BJP lead government at the center.

Exit Poll Results Bihar Assembly Election 2015

Bihar Assembly 2015 will come to end today with the end of polling in the last (fifth) phase of the election. With this, we will also get the exit poll results from the various media and survey agencies. Though, the final results of the Bihar Assembly election 2015 will be available on 8th Nov, however, these exit poll results will provide some idea of upcoming results. The exit poll results for the Bihar will be available by 8 PM today.

Exit Poll Results Bihar Assembly Elections are available as-

The Exit poll Results for the Bihar Assembly Election 2015 are showing mixed results with some showing win of BJP lead alliance and some showing win of JDU alliance.

The edge is with JDU alliance because more numbers of exit polls are predicting JDU+ win as compared to BJP.

Though, the Exit polls are highly divided and we will only get the final results on 8th Nov, 2015.

One thing is clear from all the exit polls that fight will be every tight in Bihar and the margin of win will be very less.

ABP News -                        BJP+  108     JDU + 130   Oth   5
AajTak -                              BJP+  111-127  JDU+   110-124   Oth  4-8
News24 (Chanakya) -         BJP+  155   JDU +  83    Oth  3
News Nation-                     BJP+   117     JDU+ 122     Oth  4
India TV C-Voter               BJP+   111    JDU+   122    Oth  10
News X CNX                     BJP+    93     JDU+  132      Oth  18

Does the combination of Yadav-Muslim Vote bank will decide the fate of Bihar Assembly Election 2015

At present, Assembly elections are continuing in Bihar and on 8th Nov, 2015 we get the final results of these Bihar Assembly election 2015. As per all the exit/opinion polls, the fight in Bihar will be very tight and any alliance or party may win this election by slight margin only. Both JDU and BJP lead alliances have tried to fix the vote bank combination right for their alliance.

The main eye in this election is again on Yadav-Muslim vote bank which has helped Lalu Yadav three times to win Bihar assembly election. One of the main reasons of JDU in going for alliance with RJD is its strong presence among Yadavs and Muslims. In Bihar, Yadav-Muslim vote bank accounts for 32% (16% Yadav and 17% Muslim).

Now, this 32% vote bank has enough power to make or break the political party dreams. At present, it is not sure what will be the final trend in Yadav and Muslim voters; however, one thing is clear that if both decided to go for one alliance then no one can stop that political alliance from winning. BJP will never like that Yadav and Muslim vote bank units in Bihar and vote against it; therefore, they joined hands with many break-away Yadav leaders.

We hope that people will vote for the right candidates, then choosing the candidates, which belong to their caste or religion. However, the Bihar elections are always notorious for caste based politics. In the last Loksabha election, we saw some change and only on 8th Nov, we will know that this trend is still present or not.

Exit/Opinion Poll results for the Bihar Assembly Election 2015

Live Results Bihar Assembly Election 2015 

As we are nearing the Bihar Assembly election 2015 so we are also getting updates of all exit polls, opinion polls and poll surveys done by various media channels. In Bihar the main election fight is between JDU-RJD-Congress allianace and BJP lead alliance of multi-parties. These political alliances clearly suggests that no political party was confident of winning these elections alone so they joined hands with like minded parties.

In Bihar Assembly, there are 243 assembly seats and to make the government any alliance or party needs to winn 122 seats. I have all the poll surveys related to Bihar and they are saying one thing that there will be a tough fight on the ground. Some poll surveys have given the edge to BJP alliance and some have given edge to JDU alliance. However, in a nutshell, all exit polls suggest that there will be a difference of only 2-3% votes in the winning and losing alliance.

Though, both alliances are confident of winning the Bihar Assembly election 2015. Bihar assembly elections will be held in five phases and the final results will be declared on 8th Nov, 2015.

When we go by the opinion polls of IndiaTV (C-voter) and Zee News, then it looks that BJP lead alliance looks to have a narrow edge over the JDU lead alliance winning 122-132 seats. 

However, ABP news (Nielson) opinion poll, JDU lead alliance to get 129 seats.

We can see a clear contradiction in the opinion polls about the final results of Bihar; however, all indicating a tough fight.

Opinion Poll Results for Bihar Assembly Election 2015 (Combined)

BJP+   118-135
JDU+   115-129
Oth       10-18

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