Who will West Bengal Assembly Election 2016? Exit/Opinion Polls/Survey

Yesterday, the election commission of India announced the dates of assembly elections in the state of West Bengal. These elections will be conducted in six phases to insure people vote freely. At present, Mamta Banerjee lead Trimool Congress (TMC) is in power from last five years. In 2011, she overthrow 34 years old rule of left parties from the West Bengal with a landslide victory of 227 seats. In the 2011 assembly election, TMC has an alliance with Congress; however, this time TMC has decided to go alone and already declared list of its candidates.

There is a total of 294 assembly seats in West Bengal; therefore, any political alliance or party needs to win 148 seats to make next government in the state. The main fight in West Bengal Assembly election 2016 is between TMC, Congress, Left Parties (Communist Parties) and the BJP. So far, there is no news of any political alliance in the state and it looks that all political parties are going alone in this election. In the last assembly election of 2011, TMC won 184 assembly seats and it 2014 Loksabha election, it won 34 Loksabha seats out of 42 with Vote share of 39.3 %.

At present Trimool Congress looks to be a strongest candidate among all political parties and some of opinion polls (including an Opinion poll of Aaj Tak), it is predicted that TMC will win these elections. The biggest rival of TMC is Communist parties which enjoyed a vote share of 23% in 2014 Loksabha election. BJP saw a major boost in its vote share in the 2014 Loksabha election and got 16.6% votes (+10.6%). BJP again looks for another miracle to win the West Bengal Assembly elections; however, it will not an easier job for BJP.

Congress is now restricted to a small region of West Bengal and it is slowly losing its ground in West Bengal after the exit of Mamta Banerjee from Congress in 1997. In the present circumstances, the chances of TMC are very high in West Bengal. However, it is still to be seen what will the effect of recent communal violence and JNU incidence on the West Bengal election. Communist Parties and Congress can increase their chances in West Bengal, if they go far an alliance; however, so far, Communist parties have denied any such alliance.

Only on 19th May, 2016 we will get to know about the mood of people in West Bengal, till then we can only speculate. In my opinion, TMC looks to have better chances; however, things can change with time.

Schedule of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry Assembly Election 2016 (Time Table)

Today, Election commission of India announced the dates of Assembly polls in four states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and one Union territory of Puducherry. After the Bihar Assembly Election, these elections are biggest election of 2016 in which we will get a chance to witness the mood of people in five assemblies of India. State Assembly Election 2016 in West Bengal will take place in six phases and in Assam Two phases. In other states, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry assembly election 2016 will take place in single phase. Ruling party BJP has high stakes in the state of Assam and West Bengal. While for Congress all elections are important. Congress will have a straight fight in Kerala and Assam where it has present governments. On the other hand, Jayalalitha and Mamta Banerjee will fight to retain the present governments in the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.



Below read detail update on important dates and schedule for Assembly elections in each state.

The Final Counting of Votes for all Five Assembly Elections will be done on 19-5-2016 (THU)

Assam  

Total Number of Voter- 1,98,66,496
Total Number of Assembly Seats- 126 
Total Number of Polling Stations- 24,888 
Assam Assembly election 2016 will held in Two Phases

Important Dates Phase 1

Date of Notification- 11.03.2016 (FRI) 
Last Date of Nomination- 18.03.2016 (FRI) 
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 19.03.2016 (SAT) 
Last Date of Withdrawal- 21.03.2016 (MON) 
Date of Poll- 04.04.2016 (MON) 

Important Dates Phase 2

Date of Notification- 14.03.2016 (MON)
Last Date of Nomination- 21.03.2016 (MON)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 22.03.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 26.03.2016 (SAT)
Date of Poll- 11.04.2016 (MON)

Kerala 

Total Number of Voter- 2,56,08,720
Total Number of Assembly Seats- 140 
Total Number of Polling Stations- 21,498 
Kerala Assembly election 2016 will held in one Phase

Important Dates 

Date of Notification- 22.04.2016 (FRI)
Last Date of Nomination- 29.04.2016 (FRI)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 30.04.2016 (SAT)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 02.05.2016 (MON)
Date of Poll- 16.05.2016 (MON)

Tamil Nadu 

Total Number of Voter- 5,79,15,075
Total Number of Assembly Seats- 234 
Total Number of Polling Stations- 65,616
Tamil Nadu Assembly election 2016 will held in one Phase

Important Dates 

Date of Notification- 22.04.2016 (FRI)
Last Date of Nomination- 29.04.2016 (FRI)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 30.04.2016 (SAT)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 02.05.2016 (MON)
Date of Poll- 16.05.2016 (MON)

Puducherry

Total Number of Voter- 9,27,034
Total Number of Assembly Seats- 30
Total Number of Polling Stations- 913
Puducherry Assembly election 2013 will held in one Phase

Important Dates 

Date of Notification- 22.04.2016 (FRI)
Last Date of Nomination- 29.04.2016 (FRI)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 30.04.2016 (SAT)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 02.05.2016 (MON)
Date of Poll- 16.05.2016 (MON)

West Bengal 

Total Number of Voter- 6,55,46,101
Total Number of Assembly Seats- 294 
Total Number of Polling Stations- 77,247 
West Bengal Assembly election 2016 will held in Six Phase

Important Dates Phase 1(a)

Date of Notification- 11.03.2016 (FRI)
Last Date of Nomination- 18.03.2016 (FRI)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 19.03.2016 (SAT)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 21.03.2016 (MON)
Date of Poll- 04.04.2016 (MON)

Important Dates Phase 1(b)

Date of Notification- 14.03.2016 (MON)
Last Date of Nomination- 21.03.2016 (MON)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 22.03.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 26.03.2016 (SAT)
Date of Poll- 11.04.2016(MON)

Important Dates Phase 2

Date of Notification- 22.03.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Nomination- 29.03.2016 (TUE)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 30.03.2016 (WED)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 01.04.2016 (FRI)
Date of Poll- 17.04.2016 (SUN)

Important Dates Phase 3

Date of Notification- 28.03.2016 (MON)
Last Date of Nomination- 04.04.2016 (MON)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 05.04.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 07.04.2016 (THU)
Date of Poll- 21.04.2016 (THU)

Important Dates Phase 4

Date of Notification- 01.04.2016 (FRI)
Last Date of Nomination- 08.04.2016 (FRI)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 09.04.2016 (SAT)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 11.04.2016 (MON)
Date of Poll- 25.04.2016 (MON)

Important Dates Phase 5

Date of Notification- 04.04.2016 (MON)
Last Date of Nomination- 11.04.2016 (MON)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 12.04.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 16.04.2016 (SAT)
Date of Poll- 30.04.2016 (SAT)

Important Dates Phase 6

Date of Notification- 11.04.2016 (MON)
Last Date of Nomination- 18.04.2016 (MON)
Date of Scrutiny of Nomination- 19.04.2016 (TUE)
Last Date of Withdrawal- 21.04.2016 (THU)
Date of Poll- 05.05.2016 (THU)