Final Prediction Loksabha Election 2014 (Exit Poll/Opinion Poll Results)

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Who will win West Bengal Assembly Election?

Finally, we are very close to the biggest election in the biggest democracy of the world i.e. Loksabha (parliamentary) 2014 in India. Within a few months, five year term of present Loksabha will expire; therefore, it becomes mandatory for the Election Commission of India to conduit new election for selected new members of the parliament (Loksabha). So far, the Election Commission has not announced any dates for the Loksabha Election but we can expect to hear announcement in this regard very soon. India is a multi-party democracy; therefore, we find hundreds of recognized and thousands of unrecognized political parties in India. There are total of 543 Loksabha seats and any party or alliance needs to win at least 272 seats to make next government.

For last, 23 years, no single political party has won more than 272 seats and therefore, we are seeing the rule by multiparty coalition governments in India. In the last 2009 Loksabha Election, Congress lead UPA (The United Progressive Alliance)won 260 seats and it made government with the outside support of BSP (The Bahujan Samaj Party) and SP (The Samajwadi Party). In these elections, Congress emerged as single largest party by winning 206 seats. While the alliance lead by BJP NDA (The National Democratic Alliance) won only 181 seats with 116 seats won by BJP.

Loksabha Election, 2014, Prediction, Opinion Poll,
In the 2014 Loksabha election, Congress will once again likes to repeat or improve 2014 performance while BJP will try hard to stop it. With the chance of formation of third front by regional political parties, the whole election can become triangular. The great performance of AAP (Aam Admi Party) in the Delhi Assembly election and its announcement to fight 350 Loksabha seats can make this fight four sided.

Indian voters have always surprised political analytics by voting differently; therefore, it is near to impossible to predict exact results. However, all leading newspapers, TV channels, News agencies, political analysts and survey companies have come up with their anticipated outcomes of Loksabha election 2014. Most of these surveys, opinion polls are pointing in the same direction and giving some edge to BJP lead NDA, However, none of them is sure on final victory of NDA.

As per the prediction, Congress lead UPA is likely to suffer major loses while BJP lead NDA and Third Front to make impressive gains.

Combined Final Predictions for Loksabha Election 2014 are

BJP lead NDA -           200- 230
Third Front -                 180- 220
Congress Lead UPA -   100-135
AAP                   -             2-10



  1. AAP will play an important role in the coming parliamentary elections. BJP will not achieve its target. Congress will not lose its original voters.

  2. What Are the Chances ?

    Over the past few weeks , we saw many surveys re: which political party will win how many Lok Sabha seats

    These included , Times Now-ORG / CNN-IBN-CSDS / Headlines Today - Cicero / ABP News-Nielsen / News 24 - Today's Chanakya / Cvoter - India TV etc

    Although , " Today's Chanakya " came closest to predicting the number of seats that NDA might win , others too were fairly accurate

    Using statistical techniques , they computed the Chance ( Probability ) for each party , based on asking a few thousands voters ( sample ) , their preferences

    Now is the time to survey the voters , once again , as to what do they believe , when it comes to BJP fulfilling its poll promises

    For each item ( of BJP's poll manifesto ) , what is the perceived chance ( probability ) that the BJP Government will fulfill / deliver on its promises ? Will it be 10 % - 50 % - 100 % ?

    The outcome will determine BJP's credibility among voters , vis-a-vis , its poll promises

    It may be even an eye-opener for BJP !

    If conducted and results published by end June 2014 , such a survey might even become a " Self Fulfilling Prophesy " !

    If it turns out less-than-flattering , BJP will work twice as hard to prove the pollsters wrong !

    Here are the " Chances " which I attach to fulfillment of each of BJP's following poll promises , by the end of 3rd year :

    * Ensure minimization of Black Money and setting up of a Task
    Force ......... ( 50 % )

    * Special Courts to stop hoarding and black-marketing. ( 100 %)

    * Set-up a Price-Stabilization Fund.......( 100 % )

    * Develop labour-intensive Manufacturing ... ( 10 % )

    * Empowering youth for Self-Employment... ( 25 % )

    * Transforming Employment Exchanges to Career Centers(10% )

    * Eliminating corruption thru E-Governance... ( 10 % )

    * Rationalization / Simplification of Tax-regime.. ( 20 % )

    * Insulate intelligence agencies from political intervention and
    interference..... ( 10 % )

    * Strengthening physical infrastructure with expediting work on
    freight and Industrial Corridors..... ( 15 % )

    * Setting up Gas-Grids and National Optical Fiber Network up to
    the village level....... ( 30 % )

    * Quadrilateral project for Bullet Trains..... ( 5 % )

    * Establishment of National E - Library..... ( 40 % )

    * Implementation of National Education Policy .. ( 50 % )

    * Evolving further the PPP model to PPPP model .. ( 50 % )

    * Building 100 Mega-Cities................ ( 0 % )

    Did I miss out any ?

    Parallel with whatever the Pollsters may - or may not - do , it would be worthwhile for BJP Tech-Team , to come out with a mobile App ( to be named , " RUN - Rate Us Now " ? ), to find out what voters feel , on a 5 star scale

    Or , an App that would let the voters prioritize among various promises

    * hemen parekh ( 19 May 2014 / Mumbai )


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