In the 2012 assembly election, SP snatched power from BSP which was ruling the state for past 5 years. This time, the main fight in UP is between SP-Congress alliance, BJP and BSP. Just before the election, SP party joined hands with Congress and they are fight 298 and 105 seats respectively. Samajwadi Party, which enjoys a strong base among Muslim and Yadav voters. This time again SP is depending on the same strategy. SP- Congress alliance is likely to consolidate Muslim voters and increase penetration among Dalit voters. Many latest political surveys suggest that SP-Congress alliance may get maximum vote share in UP from 30-36%. Samajwadi Party was also in the news because of its internal crisis between father-son Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav. Mulayam Singh Yadav is slightly unhappy with many outcomes like SP's alliance with Congress; however, most of the party looks to be with Akhilesh Yadav.
Second biggest challenger for SP-Congress alliance is the BJP, which showed an exceptional performance in 2014 Loksabha elections by winning more than 70 seats out of 80 in UP. If the people of UP vote similarly, then no one can stop BJP from winning Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. However, things have quite changed since and some segments of people were unhappy with few policies of BJP's government at the Centre. Also SP has joined hands with Congress and their vote share is likely to increase. BJP mainly depends on the votes of upper castes and OBC voters.
Third contender is BSP which will like to win this election so that they can return to power after 5 years. However, their path to success doesn't look so easy because to win this election BSP needs support of either Brahmins or Muslim voters which looks difficult at present.
In this three cornered contest, it is quite hard to predict the final outcome because a slight shift in vote shares can make a big difference. Different election surveys are giving different pictures; however, most of them are clear one thing that the main fight in UP will be between SP-Congress alliance and BJP.
For the final results of UP Assembly election 2017, we need to wait till 11th March 2017.
Also visit- Important Dates Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017