Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) Assembly Election 2014 (Who will Win?) Opinion Poll

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Jammu & Kashmir Assembly's current term is going to end on 19/01/2014, therefore, the election commission of India has decided to conduct election in J&K in five phases in the month of November and December. The Final counting of votes for all the five phases will take place on 23rd Dec, 2014 and then, we will come to know that which party of the alliance will make next government in Jammu & Kashmir. To Get a detailed schedule of Jammu & Kashmir assembly Election 2014 Click Here

There are 87 Assembly seats in J&K and any political party or alliance need support of 44 MLA to form the next government.

The J&K Assembly has six year tenure unlike five year tenure of Assemblies in other Indian states.

Last elections were held in J&K in 2008, in this election National Conference (NC) won 28 seats, People's Democratic Party (PDP) 21 seats, the Congress 17 seats, BJP 11 seats and Others 10.

National Conference made government at that time with the support of Congress and Omar Abdullah became Chief Minister of the state.

We can divide J&K in three regions of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh which have 46, 37 and 4 seats respectively.

Kashmir Valley with 46 assembly seats enjoy a good say in the formation of the next government in the state.

The main fight in J&K is between NC, PDP, Congress and BJP. Both NC and Congress are likely to face anti-incumbency factor in this election because of six year rule in the state.

PDP has tried to increase its hold in Jammu Kashmir region because it failed to show a good show here.

This time, BJP also finds it in the race because it won three Loksabha seats J&K out of total six Loksabha seats in few months back. This was the best show of BJP in J&K so far. Therefore, the BJP is very optimistic of showing a good performance here.

However, at ground level the fight is very tough because of regional divided and polarization of votes. Under such situation, it is very difficult for the signal party to win an absolute majority in the state.

If we go with the performance of the Parties in recently held Loksabha Election then NC and Congress are likely to lose some seats while PDP is likely to retain its seats. BJP can be big gainer in this election; however, it is not easy for it cross 44 mark.

Overall, J&K assembly elections are going to be very tough and we can only get the exact results on 23rd Dec, 2014.